Researcher: Phuong Thi Le
Affiliation: University of South Australia
Primary supervisor: A/Prof. Nicholas Chileshe, A/Prof. Konstantinos Kirytopoulos
Thesis language: English
The aim of this research is to enhance risk management in Vietnam.
Risk management in public private partnership (PPP) projects has been researched extensively in various countries. However, research concerning developing countries is inadequate, especially in regard to a specific PPP arrangement. This study was conducted in Vietnam, where many transportation projects are financed by the build operate transfer (BOT) model. The aim of the study is to enhance risk management in Vietnam.
The research was designed sequentially, using a mixed method that emphasised the quantitative approach rather than the qualitative approach. The research included three main phases to achieve the research aim and objectives: a systematic literature review (SLR), interviews and a questionnaire survey. The aim of the SLR was to identify and classify risks related to PPP transportation projects throughout the world. Interviews were employed to refine the risk list and the risk breakdown structure (RBS) established in the previous phase of the study to fit within the specific context of a developing country, such as Vietnam. Lastly, a questionnaire survey was conducted to investigate the risk perception of stakeholders. Qualitative data analysis and quantitative data analysis were performed using NVivo and SPSS software respectively to answer the research questions.
A comprehensive risk list including 86 risks associated with PPP transportation projects and an RBS that classified risks mainly according to the projects' life cycle phases were established following the SLR. Through interviews, the list of risks was refined to a final list of 40 risks applicable to BOT transportation projects in Vietnam. Descriptive statistical analysis resulted in the priority of 40 risks regarding the probability of occurrence (P), the severity of impact of risks (I) and the significance of risks (RS). The top five most significant risks in BOT transportation projects in Vietnam were 'Problems with land acquisition and compensation', 'Inappropriate location of toll booths', 'Public resistance to pay', 'Lack of cash flow' and 'High toll rate'. In addition, inferential statistical analysis showed no significant differences in the risk perception of the public and private sectors, except for the risk of 'Lack of cash flow'. Frequency analysis showed the result of the best management sector, in which the majority of risks were ambiguous in terms of the management sector reference. A catalogue of risk allocation recommendations was built based on this reference, which focuses on the management capability of sectors. Finally, a latent structure of risks was explored through factor analysis, resulting in seven main factors.
The outcomes of the research are risk rankings, the structure of risks in BOT transportation projects and a catalogue of risk allocation recommendations that contribute to the body of knowledge on enhancing risk management in BOT transportation projects in developing countries. For academics, the research provides avenues for comparative studies with similar emerging economies in the CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) group. For practitioners in PPPs, the research provides useful information to assist stakeholders in their decision-making when participating in BOT transportation projects as well as in negotiations to include appropriate risk allocation strategies in BOT contracts. In addition, the study can assist the Vietnamese government to establish suitable policies and frameworks to enhance project performance.