2.J.033

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2.J.033

Qazi, A, Quigley, J, Dickson, A & Kirytopoulos, K 2016, 'Project Complexity and Risk Management (ProCRiM): Towards modelling project complexity driven risk paths in construction projects', International Journal of Project Management, 34(7), 1183-1198.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2016.05.008

Abstract:

Project complexity has been extensively explored in the literature because of its contribution towards the failure of major projects in terms of cost and time overruns. Focusing on the interface of Project Complexity and Interdependency Modelling of Project Risks, we propose a new
process that aids capturing interdependency between project complexity, complexity induced risks and project objectives. The proposed modelling approach is grounded in the theoretical framework of Expected Utility Theory and Bayesian Belief Networks. We consider the decision problem of
identifying critical risks and selecting optimal risk mitigation strategies at the commencement stage of a project, taking into account the utility function of the decision maker with regard to the importance of project objectives and holistic interaction between project complexity and risk. The
proposed process is supported by empirical research that was conducted in the construction industry and its application is illustrated through a simulation study.

Keywords Project complexity; Project risks; Project objectives; Expected Utility Theory; Bayesian Belief Networks; Empirical research